Hawai’i Quarterly Market Insights Report: Q4 2023

Hawai'i Q4 2023 Market Report - Blog Header

In this report, you’ll find a high level snapshot of the trends shaping the market for each neighborhood across Hawai’i. The full report is available here: Hawai’i Q4 2023 Market (Micro) Insights Report

The post Hawai’i Quarterly Market Insights Report: Q4 2023 first appeared on California Real Estate Blog.

January 2024 Northern California Market Insights Report

The 2023 market was characterized by high interest rates, financial market uncertainty, surprisingly strong demand (considering the first two issues), and an extremely low supply of new listings – which maintained upward pressure on prices, even as housing affordability dropped. Sales numbers plunged due to loan rates and the inadequate supply of homes for sale, while for prospective sellers, the motivation to move was reduced by the mortgage lock-in effect. With interest rates falling, and economic conditions and consumer confidence rebounding, the big question is how much do rates need to fall for buyers and sellers to start participating in the market in normal numbers again? Right now, the direction is trending positive.

  • In the last 2 months of 2023, the average weekly 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. With the fall in inflation this past year, the Fed is widely expected to begin dropping its benchmark rate, probably in multiple steps, in 2024. The consensus forecast among analysts is for further declines in mortgage interest rates.
  • After its end-of-year rally, the S&P Index was up 25% and the Nasdaq up 45% in 2023 (though it has ticked down in early 2024). This plays a major role in Bay Area household wealth.

Click the links below to access monthly market updates by Bay Area region.

The post NorCal Monthly Market Insights Report: January 2024 first appeared on California Real Estate Blog.

Northern California December Market Insights Report

A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators 

“For the third sixth straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding. The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely bring more potential homebuyers into the market.” Freddie Mac (FHLMC)

Stock and bond markets – which greatly impact household wealth, consumer confidence, and interest rates – were generally characterized by deep pessimism in October, but with significant changes in economic indicators such as inflation, and a continued pause in benchmark rate increases by the Fed, financial markets abruptly shifted to enthusiastic optimism in November. That translated into a dramatic plunge in mortgage rates, which has caused mortgage applications to increase over recent weeks. 

Since the homebuying process usually takes 30 to 60 days, from loan qualification and making an offer to a closed sale, sales might see a bounce in December, or – since the mid-winter holiday period typically sees the annual low point in new-listing (and thus sales) activity – more likely in early 2024 (subject to these positive trends continuing). 

In January 2023, buyer demand saw a substantial rebound due to a similar drop in interest rates in late 2022. 

Click the links below to access monthly market updates by Bay Area region.

The post NorCal Monthly Market Insights Report: December 2023 first appeared on California Real Estate Blog.

November NorCal Market Insights Report

Rising Interest Rates Continued to Impact Supply & Demand in October, But Early November Brings Big Shift in Economic Indicators

The heart of the autumn selling season was dominated by global conflict, falling stock markets – and interest rates jumping to their highest point in 23 years, further discouraging buyers who require financing, and prospective sellers reluctant to abandon their current loan terms. Then on November 1st, the October jobs report came out, the Fed extended their pause on raising its benchmark rate, and the Treasury Department issued revised guidance pertaining to upcoming bond sales – and by November 3rd, stock markets had logged their best week of the year, and interest rates had seen a near-record decline. The housing market typically begins its big, holiday slowdown in mid-November, with listing and sales activity declining to annual lows. Considering the volatility that has characterized economic and political conditions, it’s too early to speculate on how these shifts will play out in the coming days, weeks and months. Ideally, rates will continue to normalize and consumer confidence to recover into the new year, with significant improvements to both housing affordability and the equation for homeowners contemplating a sale.

Even if the expected holiday slowdown occurs, sellers of appealing, well-prepared and well-priced homes may still see a quick sale with multiple offers:  There are still qualified buyers actively looking to purchase (with financing or all cash). For buyers, mid-winter usually offers reduced competition for listings, and an enhanced ability to aggressively negotiate prices on unsold properties:  It can be an excellent time to buy for those who stay in the game. 

This report will review trends in home prices, new and active listings, speed of sale, overbidding, listings going into contract, and sales volumes in both the general market and the luxury segment. We have also updated our Bay Area home price tables and maps with detailed data on current values and market dynamics in the cities, towns and other submarkets within the region.

Click the links below to access monthly market updates by Bay Area region.

The post NorCal Monthly Market Insights Report: November 2023 first appeared on California Real Estate Blog.

It is our pleasure to bring you the Compass SoCal Q3 2023 Market Report. Third-quarter home sales activity around Southern California declined in part due to interest rates. Exceptions included the Santa Barbara County beach town of Carpinteria where home sales activity increased by 38 percent. An 8 percent decline in the median sales price for single-family homes in Carpinteria to $1.6 million may have fueled that activity. 

Heading down the coast to Malibu Beach the median price for single-family homes increased by a hefty 106 percent to $13.6 million. Those buyers took their time as average days on market increased to 121 days from 59 days the year before. 

In the San Fernando Valley Encino fell out of favor with buyers as home sales activity fell by 23 percent. A median sales price decline for single-family homes of 20 percent to $1.8 million did not motivate buyers there in the third quarter.

Sales activity for condos around Southern California also declined. Condos once considered an “affordable” alternative to single-family homes had been enjoying significant median price increases over the last few years. Those increases likely impacted sales activity for condos. For example, the median sales price for condos in Playa Vista increased by 34 percent to $1.3 million in the third quarter. Conversely, sales activity for those condos fell by 48 percent.  

As we enter the fourth quarter of a challenging housing market partnering with experienced agents and brokers remains key. Compass professionals have the knowledge to support clients from their first meeting to the close of escrow.

The full report is available here: SoCal Q3 2023 Market (Micro) Insights Report

The post SoCal Quarterly Market Insights Report: Q3 2023 first appeared on California Real Estate Blog.